A Monthly Recap of Cool April - 2025

Followed by a strong recovery in March, April also marked a recovery month for the Indian stock market. Known for hot summers, April resulted in cool recovery for the market along with a few milestone achievements and robust fourth quarter (Q4) earnings. However, the initial phase of the month really emitted some scorching heat as markets were caught with tariffs fires. The month also noted a few noteworthy instances in the stock market space which we will discuss in this monthly digest.

LIBERATION DAY

U.S President, Donald Trump decided to declare 04 April as the Liberation Day and imposed reciprocal tariffs on all imports to the U.S economy. This move was followed by panic selling across the market and gave nostalgia of the historic event called Black Monday on 19 October 1987 when the Dow Jones Industrial average fell over 22% in a single session.

Likewise, on 07 April global markets suffered massive losses from Trump's drama, Sensex fell nearly over 3%, wiping out Rs 12 lakh crore in market capitalisation. Hang Seng fell over 15%, recording a brutal decline in over 16 years followed by 5% to 8% losses in the European markets.

However, a few days later Trump called-off a tariff plan for 90-days excluding China. Notably, global markets began to settle down and the Indian stock market became the first to erase losses due to Liberation Day.

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GOLDEN ERA

Gold proved to be the best performing asset in 2025 and achieved the milestone level of Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams on 22 April in the physical market including 3% goods and services tax (GST). Gold prices have surged over 25% in 2025 so as investors looked for safe heaven assets amid tariff wars.

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WEEKLY STREAK

The Indian benchmark, Nifty and Sensex logged the biggest weekly winning streak in April after posting positive returns for consecutive 3 weeks. In the last week of April, Nifty rose 1.3%, whereas the Sensex gained 1.6%. Indian stock market emerged as the best-performing market in Asia, Nifty 50 added a monthly gain of almost 3.5%, while Sensex closed the month with a return of 3.2%.

Broader market, on the other hand, delivered stellar performance as Nifty Midcap 100 rose 15.24%, whereas Nifty Small cap rose 17% from the low of 07 April and ended the month with over 4.5% gain. On the sectoral front, Nifty Bank led the indices with the monthly gain of 6.83%. Other indices including FMCG, Auto, PSU Bank and Realty gain between 4% to 6%.

FOREIGN BUYING STREAK

The last trading session of April month concluded on Wednesday, 30 April, where foreign investors maintained their buying streak for 11 continuous sessions. In the last two sessions, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers offsetting previous significant selling of almost Rs 35,000 crore. Notably, FIIs reduced their net sales to Rs 1.37 lakh crore in 2025 so far.

Several interlinked drivers explain this reversal. First, the U.S. dollar index has softened to around 100, boosting the relative attractiveness of emerging market assets and enhancing returns for dollar-based investors. Second, GDP growth is expected to remain in the 6% to 7% range for FY2026, providing one of the strongest growth stories among major economies. Third, monetary policy has turned supportive: the Reserve Bank of India recently cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, signalling a pro-growth stance.

DIIS DOMINATE

April reported a landmark achievement, where after the wait of 22 years, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) claimed higher stake in the Indian stocks than FIIs. After investing more than Rs 2 lakh crore in 2025, DIIs held 16.91% stake, slightly higher than 16.84% holding of FIIs in Indian stocks.

DIIs’ assets under custody increased to 69.90 lakh crore against Rs 69.85 lakh crore of FIIs assets. Mutual funds are receiving record-high SIP contributions, with a monthly average of more than Rs 20,000 crore. Collectively, DIIs manage equity assets worth over Rs 70 lakh crore, and even a conservative liquidity buffer of 5 to 10% translates to several lakh crore in ready capital.

RELIANCE RS 10TN CLUB

Reliance Industries claimed its position as the world’s top 25 most valuable companies by the net worth with a valuation of $118 billion and became the first Indian company to achieve the net worth of Rs 10 lakh crore. In April, Reliance commanded the market value equivalent to the combined net worth of 19 Nifty 50 companies or all firms listed on the Nifty Small cap 250 index.

IPOS SPACE

The initial public offering (IPO) market in India remained muted in the first four months of 2025. While in the same period 25 mainboard IPOs were debuted in 2024, only 10 mainboard IPOs were issued in 2025. Despite the slow start, analysts predict a positive outlook for the IPO market as there are several IPOs scheduled to debut in 2025.

Ather Energy IPO was the only IPO opened for public subscription in April after reducing its IPO size and valuation. On the other hand, OYO delayed its IPO plan for the third time as its major investor, Softbank, opposed the IPO before the firm achieves strong earnings.

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MINTIT’S OUTLOOK:

Experts predict Indian companies, especially those in the Nifty 50 index, will see earnings grow by 10-15% per year over the next 3-5 years because India’s economy is expected to grow at 6-7% annually, fastest among the major economies which supports companies to grow with higher profits. Rising consumer spending, especially in rural areas and increase in household savings moving into stocks directly or through Mutual Funds (from gold /property) will fuel growth in consumer goods and financial sectors.

Latest rally in April is witnessed by more people buying into cash markets and not due to short covering by FII’s, short covering is decreased as compared to earlier. Instead of short covering (which happens in the derivatives market, like futures and options), the rally is driven by activity in the cash market. This means investors are directly buying stocks in the regular stock market, not just closing out derivative bets. In simple terms, more people are buying stocks because they believe in their value, which is pushing prices up.

The market may remain range-bound due to global uncertainties, such as U.S. trade tariffs starting in April 2025. The Indian market is likely to see a gradual recovery as GDP growth stays robust (around 6.5%), inflation remains low, and government spending picks up over 3-6 months period, which is a very golden chance to average out your investments through regular investments and stay patient through volatile markets.

WHAT TO WATCH:

Earnings Growth: Companies with strong profits will drive the market. Weak earnings could lead to selloffs in specific stocks.

Global Factors: U.S. tariffs, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions could cause short-term swings.

RBI Policies: Expected rate cuts in 2025 could boost spending and stock prices, especially in banking and consumer sectors.

Note: The market might be up and down due to global news, but India’s strong economy supports longterm growth.